Game 1, Finals Prediction

My plan was to write a more in depth analysis of the Finals earlier this week. However with class starting in less than 40 minutes, and school actaully taking up the majority of my time, here are a few quick thoughts on tonight's game 1 in Los Angeles.

• Lamar Odom has to make Lewis and Hedo work on the defensive end. This means Odom needs to stop shooting threes, and become more aggresive in the paint. Many feel that Odom's defense on these two players will be the key to the series, and while I do agree, I beleive it is even more imporant Odom makes them work on the other end of the floor.
• Rafer Alston must look to to get his teammates more involved. To often Alston falls in love with his perimeter shot (I dont know why), but the Magic will be nearly unstopable if Alston takes advantage of Fisher by penetrating and then kicking out to the to shooters like Hedo, Lewis, and Pietrus.
• Magic.....dont play Jameer Nelson! I understand Nelson wants to play, and that he had his way with the Lakers in the regular season, averaging 27 a game in the two previous match ups. However the Magic are in a groove with Alston playing the majority of the minutes, and Anthony Johnson contributing a solid 12-15 per game. Stan, keep it that way.
  
• Kobe needs to do what he has been doing all postseason, and that is reacting to what the defense gives him. If Orlando is double teaming him, Kobe must trust that his teammates will make shots. Kobe's game has evolved over the years, he now understands the type of game he needs to play in order for his team to win.
• Prediction: Lakers 103 Magic 94
  

A Look Back, and a Glimpse Forward

The Blazers magical season came to an unfortunate end Thursday night in Houston. The Rockets finished off the best of seven series in six games, leaving myself and many other Blazer fans longing for October to get here ASAP! I, like others, was frustrated with how the season ended, but now I would like to take a quick look back at this magical season, and ponder the bright future these Blazers have in store for us.

Throughout the season I saw a true NBA superstar emerge in Brandon Roy. Roy was the heart and soul of this team; making last second shots, locking down other teams stars, and giving his all every time he took the floor. The NBA’s MVP went to LeBron James this year, but if you really consider what the MVP award means, shouldn’t Roy be a leading candidate, if not the front runner? I honestly believe that no player meant more to their team than Roy did to the Blazers, and Roy finishing 9th in the MVP voting is insulting. Roy doesn’t have the flashy moves of a Chris Paul, the breath taking athleticism of King James, or the resume of a Kobe Bryant. Nationally, Roy may never be viewed in the same light as these aforementioned superstars, because he doesn't have a "look at me" type of personality. Houston’s Ron Artest recently stated that Roy was the hardest player he has ever defended. Artest is perennially regarded as one of the best defenders in the league, and giving a third year player that type of praise is unheard of. Roy may never truly be appreciated by the common NBA fan because of his old school approach, and team first demeanor, but this young star has earned the respect of his colleagues, and teammates throughout the NBA.

With Roy playing “Batman” for the Blazers, his partner in crime LaMarcus Aldridge, aka “Robin” has transformed himself into the most feared young big man in the league. Who else currently possesses his combination of raw athleticism, deadly mid range jumper, emerging defensive presence, and up and coming back to the basket game? After watching Randy Foye put up meaningless (and honestly underwhelming) numbers in Minnesota, and Tyrus Thomas flail around like a chicken with his head cut off this postseason, I have to believe Kevin Pritchard has a decent understanding of what he is doing. If you were to plug Foye and Thomas into the current roster, the only excitement in the Rose City this offseason would be the debate of who we should take with the first pick in this June’s draft. KP has given us two franchise bookends, and filled in the gaps with some extremely exciting prospects.

As I look into the future, I believe this youthful team has most of the pieces in place for a 6-8 year championship window (Rudy, Batum, Martell, Joel…Outlaw, though I would like a more veteran/cerebral presence at the 3), similar to what the Spurs had earlier this decade with Timmy, Parker, and Manu. Not to rain on the parade (referring to my prior two paragraphs), but Greg Oden must show significant improvement next season if the Blazers are going to dominate the NBA landscape for the better part of next decade. I understand Oden was a rookie this year, coming off a devastating knee surgery, but 8 points, 20 minutes, and 5 fouls isn’t going to cut it next season. GO did impress me at times in the Houston series, but was that due to my lowered expectations (or possibly Mike Rice and Barrett assuring me that the refs have it out for Greg)? I was getting excited when GO was able to play 3 minutes without picking up a silly foul, or missing a dunk. There were minute flashes of brilliance this year…the put back dunks, weak side blocks, etc., but the Blazer organization clearly expected more than one rim rattling dunk a game from Oden when drafting him. Greg was however drafted into the perfect situation, because of All Star players like BRoy and LA, GO has been able to mature at his own pace, however slow that may be. If GO was on the Thunder, he would be getting crucified on a national scale, and deemed a bust by NBA analyst from coast to coast. I do concede that maybe I have been to impatient and critical of GO at times, like I stated earlier KP hasn’t let us down with any of moves thus far, so time will be the deciding factor.

At the beginning of this season Blazer fans would have settled for any type of playoff appearance. Instead they were able to win 54 games, tie Denver for the Northwest Division Title, and secure a fourth seed in the daunting Western Conference. I think this team is still a piece or two away from representing the west in the finals next year. I would like to see the team add someone like an Udonis Haslem or Brandon Bass to the frontcourt, and maybe try to move Outlaw while he has some trade value. Another key will be the return on Martell Webster, in 2007-2008 Webster showed significant improvement, and if he can build on that the Blazers may have their small forward of the future. All in all, this was an amazing season for the Blazers, exceeding everyone’s expectations. This off season KP will make the necessary adjustments, ensuring the team contends for the foreseeable future. GO BLAZERS!!!

2009 Western Conference Playoff Preview

Here are my 2009 NBA Western Conference postseason predictions. As the playoffs progress I will analyze each math up more thoroughly.

First Round

1) Los Angeles vs. 8) Utah – Talk about a rough draw for the number one seeded Lakers. Just look at the eastern side of the bracket and see the cakewalk (aka Detroit) the Cavs have in the first round. I expect Bynum, Gasol, and Odon to present numerous match up problems for the Jazz throughout this series. Prediction: Lakers in 6

4) Portland vs. 5) Houston – As a fan of the NBA, this series intrigues me most out of all the first round series. Houston beat the Blazers 2-1 in their regular season match ups, but Portland is playing its best basketball of the season right now. While Artest and Battier should do a formidable job on BRoy, I expect LA and the ever improving second unit to send Houston home early (T-Mac wont be there to take the fall this season). Prediction: Blazers in 7

2) Denver vs. 7) New Orleans – Like most NBA fans I expected New Orleans to contend for the title this year. I also expected Denver to be on the outside looking in once postseason play started…shows you what I know. However with Denver landing Mr. Big Shot in the early season Allen Iverson, the Nuggets have become legitimate contenders. Prediction: Denver in 6

3) San Antonio vs. 6) Dallas – While most experts eagerly dismissed the Spurs after losing Manu, I expect Timmy and Tony have different ideas. With these two future Hall of Famers knowing what it takes to win in the playoffs, I expect the fragile Mavs to get bounced early. Prediction: Spurs in 5

Western Conference Semifinals

1) Los Angeles vs. 4) Portland – At the beginning of the season, Blazer fans were content with their team just making the playoffs. However the previous two meetings with the Lake Show (both wins in the garden) have given these young Blazers reason to be optimistic about their chances. Portland will certainly protect their home court, but winning a game seven is Los Angeles is an entirely different story. Prediction Lakers in 7

2) Denver vs. 3) San Antonio – Billups home coming will be enough to get the Nuggets into the conference semifinals. Running into a written off Spurs club is extremely dangerous, and honestly I just don’t trust Melo in the crunch. Fair or not, I often compare Melo with his 2003 draft class mates, LeBron and D-Wade. Those two have won big time games before, as has Timmy and co. Prediction: Spurs in 6

Western Conference Finals

1) Los Angeles vs. 3) San Antonio – If the Lakers can get past their most formidable opponent, the Blazers, they should stroll through this series (see last years match up, Lakers in 5). The Spurs have the brains to beat a club like the Nuggets, but the Lakers bring both brains and athleticism to the party. With Manu out, the Spurs have nobody to check Kobe… unless you are a Portland State homer and like Ime Udoka’s chances. The Lakers want this series to be a speedy one, because the Cavs will be game planning (or at least rehearsing their latest on court celebration routine for introductions in game one of the NBA finals). Prediction: Lakers in 5

Cavaliers 97, Trail Blazers 92

I wish I could look at this game more rationally. I wish I could relish the fact that the Trail Blazers battled the Cavaliers, owners of the NBA's best record, into overtime on their home court. I wish I could put all of this in perspective, especially considering the Blazers were without two of their starters, including red-hot LaMarcus Aldridge. I can't. I don't like taking pride in moral victories. I have heard all of the doubts from around the NBA centered around the fact that Portland has struggled on the road against the upper echelon of the league and I badly wanted to place this one up on the mantle along with the wins in Orlando and New Orleans to show just how well this young franchise is developing. Sadly, the Blazers can only take a lesson or two from this victory, rather than taking a valuable win away from one of the toughest arenas in the league. But enough with the doom and gloom, the team has a lot to be proud of after tonight's game so let's take a look at some of the things that went right.

-The Blazers out-rebounded Cleveland by 10, even with one of their stronger rebounders on the bench with a concussion. Cleveland has the 4th best rebounding rate in the league this season, so beating them on the boards was quite a feat and helped them stay in the game from start to finish.

- Brandon Roy was excellent like always. He was being checked by Lebron often times, especially down the stretch, and he put up 24/7/7 while going 11-11 from the charity stripe. He didn't shoot particularly well (6-16), but he was aggressive in the face double teams and did all the little things to help the team compete without his #1 sidekick.

- The centers were solid tonight; they kept Lebron out of the highlight reels for the most part and generally controlled the paint well. Greg's attitude and energy were solid, although he rushed a few shots in the paint (as pointed out by Doug Collins roughly 67 times). Joel was a man as always, scoring 13 points to go along with his 11 rebounds in 35 tough minutes.

- Channing started and played 34 minutes with Aldridge out, and he chucked up shots early and often. He hit 7 of his 15 attempts, boosting us in key stretches in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. It's good to see him get a little bit of confidence. I wish he was a little tougher on D and on the boards but I guess Channing is what he is and he was certainly valuable to the team tonight.

- Travis was Travis, putting up plenty of the shots that make fans cringe but hitting enough of the big ones to warrant his 4th quarter go-to status. For all of the flack he catches from fans and media regarding his defense, I thought he did a respectable job on Lebron James, keeping him out of the paint for the most part until the overtime period when no one on the planet could have kept that freight train out of the lane.

- Was anyone else annoyed by Cleveland's act before the game? For those who didn't catch it, they had an entire choreographed routine centered around Lebron and company posing for imaginary photos. I like Lebron and Kobe Bryant generally gets on my nerves, but I couldn't help but think that even Kobe and the Lakers wouldn't act like that before a game at Staples, much less a professional team like San Antonio. Maybe its just sour grapes coming from a Blazer fan after a tough loss or maybe that's just what the Cavs have to do to get up for a game against a Western playoff contender on national TV. I was glad to see Joel, Brandon, and the rest of the crew focused and ready on the court waiting for the tip-off while this sideshow was going on.

All in all it was a disappointing loss but hopefully there is no hangover on Saturday as Portland tries to finish this 5-game trip with a winning record against Milwaukee. As always, thanks for reading and I look forward to reading your thoughts in the comments.

NBA's Best (top 7)

I have wanted to do a piece on what NBA star I would want on my franchise if I was starting a team. The constraint to this argument is that it’s just for one season, not who to build the franchise around for the long haul (clearly James would be the choice). Here are the players I would want on my team if I was making a championship run this season.

1. Kobe Bryant – Simply put, the best player in the game. Has everything in his arsenal; superior ball handling skills, ferocious defense, unlimited range, and the ability to get to the rim at will. I’m not putting Kobe on the same level as MJ quite yet, but he exhibits the same will to win that MJ had, and that is something you can’t teach.

2. LeBron James – James is certainly the future of this league (total dominance for the next decade), in the mean time being 1B to Bryant is nothing to complain about. James has the ability to make everyone on the court better (take a look at the roster). The NBA, or any pro sport for that matter has never seen and athlete with the speed, size, and power of a LeBron James.

3. Chris Paul – You could make the argument that Dwayne Wade should be #3, and I respect that. However Paul’s court vision is what sets him apart in this league. His supporting cast is nothing to get excited about, and any accolades they receive is due solely to Paul’s brilliance. On a side note, Paul doesn’t average 25 plus a night like the others listed, but lets be honest he could get 30 a night without breaking a sweat if he wanted to.

4. Dwayne Wade – What Wade is doing in Miami this season is nothing short of amazing. When your second best player is a broken down, washed up Jermaine O’Neal, and your team is in the playoff hunt, then you are doing something right. Wade has improved his overall game, and every night he is performing like he did in the 2006 NBA finals. If you don’t recall Wade single-handedly carried that team to the NBA championship over Dallas, while overcoming an 0-2 series deficit.

5. Dwight Howard – Howard is a bit of an enigma to me. One night the guy is getting 35 and 20, and the next 15 and 7. His level of consistency isn’t near the others on this list, however he is the most dominant big man in the league and gives the Magic the inside presence they so desperately need.

6. Deron Williams – An under rated player in my opinion, Williams has the overall game to possibly surpass Paul if this list were to come out two years from now. He is playing the John Stockton role in Utah to perfection, while having no Karl Malone sidekick anywhere in sight on that roster. When healthy, Williams is what makes the Jazz tick, and they could sneak up on the Lakers this year in the West playoffs.

7. Brandon Roy – “The Natural”, Roy’s game isn’t flashy, and it often looks like he is playing in slow motion. He has the blazers vying for home court advantage in the first round, and without him this team would be vying for the first pick in the NBA draft. This level headed star will be an All Star for the next decade, but unfortunately may never get the national attention he deserves because of his team first mentality.

I know it means very little at this point, but....

seeing this makes me a little weak in the knees. Go Blazers.

Remember The Name

In arguably the best rookie class in a decade, casual NBA fans might overlook the gangly 20-year-old Frenchman Nicolas Batum. But that’s alright with him. When compared with his fellow rookie teammates, the 7’0, 285 pound Greg Oden, or the hot-shooting Rudy Fernandez, it seems highly unlikely that the little-known Batum would make the biggest impact on the Blazers, but that’s just what has happened.

Originally believed to be destined for the D-League for most of his rookie season, Batum stumbled on to the roster after a stress fracture in the pre-season sidelined starting small forward Martell Webster. After coming off the bench for the first 3 games of the season, Brandon Roy approached head coach Nate McMillan about Batum replacing Travis Outlaw in the starting line-up as Outlaw’s inefficiencies on defense left Brandon checking the best player on the opponent’s team, and left little offensive firepower coming off the bench. With Batum in the starting lineup, the offense was able to be run through its 2 primary scorers Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge.

Thus far in his rookie season, Nicolas Batum has posted averages of just over 5 points a game, 3 rebounds, and 1 assist per game. His statistics may not jump off the page at you until you consider he plays on average just 18 minutes a game, most of which are alongside Roy and Aldridge who have possession of the ball most of the time Batum is in the game. Since arriving in Portland he has been the only rookie to play in all 65 games this season, and has been one of the most consistent of all the Blazers. Nicolas Batum has been the most valuable rookie for the Portland Trailblazers because of his ability to the intangibles on both sides of the floor whether it’s grabbing loose balls or making that extra pass to get his teammate the best shot possible. Batum’s game is defined by his ability to do what his team needs him to do for the win, whether it’s shutting down the opponents best offensive player (Carter, Bryant, etc.), making come-from-behind blocks, or making a smooth dunk.

Last night he exploded for 20 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, and a steal on 7-8 shooting, including the game-winning 3 pointer in the last minute of the game. It’s rumored that Blazers management ended trade talks with Charlotte for Gerald Wallace when they insisted on Nicolas Batum, showing that the Blazers front office has just as much faith in this young man as I do. Michael Jordan himself spoke fondly of Batum while visiting Portland last week, saying Portland made the wise decision in not making any trades. Standing 6’8 and weighing in at only 200 pounds, it’s easy to see why people overlook Nicolas Batum, but if MJ himself remembers his name it seems likely that many more people will too.